2008
One other point to make before we move on: that post excited not the most comments we've had in a conversation on AI, but certainly the most rapid response. There were 40 comments in that thread in the first three hours of its existence. If you read many music blogs and forums (I assume you do; I read 'em all, for the most part) you'll notice that sort of thing is unusual in the extreme. Obviously, I want to get traffic to my site, like anyone else that craves attention and manifests that craving in this particular fashion. It would thus behoove me to continue posting topics that excite responses like that one; this is easier than it sounds, because it really isn't hard to elicit the ShitCock response. All you have to do is set reason and thoughtfulness aside.
However...
The simple fact of the matter is that staying on top of a thread like that can quickly get tiring, and the whole site would rapidly turn in to something akin to the DailyKos. While I religiously read the postings on the front of that site, I hardly ever look at the comments, because it's just short pithy remarks. Putting up a thoughtful response to something and not just saying "SHITCOCK!" requires the understanding that you're not gonna get lost in the shuffle. Since I prefer that manner of discourse here, I'll try to limit that sort of thing. I think everyone would be happier.
Keeping that in mind, I'll do the polar opposite right now. This is not really an open thread. I'd like you to post a simple thought on where you see the music industry (or at least the part that is involved with manufacturing and selling music) in 10 years. Perhaps we can build a consensus that we can all hew to, in order to stop reacting to change, and start making change. I'll start:
In the year 2018, I'll submit that there are essentially no brick-n-mortar music stores other than specialty shops for vinyl and what-not. The entirety of music sales will be handled by iTunes and its mimics, including Amazon, and will take place digitally. Most music sales in that regard will be back catalogue, whatever pop music is in 2018, and R&B. The large independent record label (I'm loath to use TVT as an example, so we'll use Anti or Warp) will cease to exist, because it is financially unwieldy for an independent artist to expect to actually sell his output. All mid-sized artists (as opposed to those that play at Madison Square Garden) and lower will just put up their output essentially as they create it, for free, and their personal incomes will be realized either by touring, merch sales, or bartending. In short, the era in which a small or mid-sized artist can reasonably expect to sell records in order to make records ended on May 3rd, 2008.
Okay, your turn. Where will this business be in 2018?
link [www.gerdleonhard.net]
"If you want to have a small fortune by investing in music, you start with a large fortune," - vc Stewart Alsop
posted May 9, 2008 by penZoil
-CR
posted May 9, 2008 by Chris Randall
In all seriousness, a discussion about future music starts and ends with the Internet. All other things being equal, decentralization wins. Music is returning to its viral roots-- "oh, I listen to this because my friend sent me this track over IM, and I went to the guy's site, downloaded some more, and liked it so much I bought a t-shirt and poster." There's your 2018 music industry in a nutshell.
Sending someone a song is no different than sending someone a link. Active music consumption will be clicking on links. Passive music consumption will be listening to your library in the car, or on your networked home stereo.
posted May 9, 2008 by Mark
posted May 9, 2008 by Heretic_D™
I don't think all the staples of today will fade away as quickly as 10 years. yes, much has changed in the previous ten and perhaps that change will accelerate but there could be a strong reaction AGAINST digital culture. you never know. some bands could stop recording music entirely and only play live.
I imagine in 10 years we'll see the beginnings (or growing pains) of hi quality wireless downloads directly to your handheld media device AND you'll see large database subscription services where you can hear any song ever recorded any time just by searching for it.
CD's will be like cassettes today. what's a cassette? exactly. there will be many niche/underground type collectors though i wonder if any of them will be under 30 years old.
Any 'artist' trying to have a career that includes fame, money etc as we think of it today will be heavily tied to marketing even more so than today and that will be the norm. buy a new car, toothbrush, foot powder etc then maybe some pop start gets a cut of the sale. instead of point son records they get points on products they shill.
People who make/play music for the fun/love/need to do it will have followings that will increase (provided they make good music) as more people reject "everything on demand" culture. not that most people won't be all for it..
record labels will mostly be fading away but i don't think i can speculate on what will happen to Warp's download service, "bleep" since who knows what those guys will come up with.
of course.. by then we may be on the downside of peak oil and living in neal stephenson's "snowcrash" version of north america.
posted May 9, 2008 by boobs
posted May 9, 2008 by DGillespie
posted May 9, 2008 by soup
a lot more people will get their music for free (or near free) as the concept of ownership will gradually change until the difference between streaming & owning is negligble....
labels wont disappear they will just fragment & the idea of distribution will become much broader eg if a dj or blogger turns me on to an artist or song & i subscribe or buy/license then they will get a micro kick back from the artist or label...
posted May 9, 2008 by subbasshead
Theatre still remains, it is a strong industry but it doesn't define our culture in the way it did for the Victorians or the Elizabethans. Cinema stepped in and with its easy distribution and freedom from scenery it lessened the economic and social status of the theatre
This would echo the comment made by SubBassHead, I think music will continue, physical manufacture, publishing, licensing, digital distribution, DJs, Live performances will all continue on a smaller scale. Commercialised music reproduction will not define the culture in the same way it did from 1920 to 1998 (arbitrary endpoint!)
Humans have always made and enjoyed listening to music, and anything that can be enjoyed can always be commercialised, but it's financial recompense will get significantly downgraded from that enjoyed at its peak.
posted May 9, 2008 by angstrom
Shit. I'm stealing that.
posted May 9, 2008 by adamkjohnson