2008
One other point to make before we move on: that post excited not the most comments we've had in a conversation on AI, but certainly the most rapid response. There were 40 comments in that thread in the first three hours of its existence. If you read many music blogs and forums (I assume you do; I read 'em all, for the most part) you'll notice that sort of thing is unusual in the extreme. Obviously, I want to get traffic to my site, like anyone else that craves attention and manifests that craving in this particular fashion. It would thus behoove me to continue posting topics that excite responses like that one; this is easier than it sounds, because it really isn't hard to elicit the ShitCock response. All you have to do is set reason and thoughtfulness aside.
However...
The simple fact of the matter is that staying on top of a thread like that can quickly get tiring, and the whole site would rapidly turn in to something akin to the DailyKos. While I religiously read the postings on the front of that site, I hardly ever look at the comments, because it's just short pithy remarks. Putting up a thoughtful response to something and not just saying "SHITCOCK!" requires the understanding that you're not gonna get lost in the shuffle. Since I prefer that manner of discourse here, I'll try to limit that sort of thing. I think everyone would be happier.
Keeping that in mind, I'll do the polar opposite right now. This is not really an open thread. I'd like you to post a simple thought on where you see the music industry (or at least the part that is involved with manufacturing and selling music) in 10 years. Perhaps we can build a consensus that we can all hew to, in order to stop reacting to change, and start making change. I'll start:
In the year 2018, I'll submit that there are essentially no brick-n-mortar music stores other than specialty shops for vinyl and what-not. The entirety of music sales will be handled by iTunes and its mimics, including Amazon, and will take place digitally. Most music sales in that regard will be back catalogue, whatever pop music is in 2018, and R&B. The large independent record label (I'm loath to use TVT as an example, so we'll use Anti or Warp) will cease to exist, because it is financially unwieldy for an independent artist to expect to actually sell his output. All mid-sized artists (as opposed to those that play at Madison Square Garden) and lower will just put up their output essentially as they create it, for free, and their personal incomes will be realized either by touring, merch sales, or bartending. In short, the era in which a small or mid-sized artist can reasonably expect to sell records in order to make records ended on May 3rd, 2008.
Okay, your turn. Where will this business be in 2018?
99% of everything sold will be in some sort of digital format, but at least the super giant storage capacities of whatever system we'll use to playback audio will have got rid of the need to compress the audio. I suspect that if we're still using some variation of PCM (and don't switch to DSD) that all music will be sold and listened to in very high fidelity on very shitty playback systems.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if music was rented with some variation of DRM controlling when, and how often something could be listened to. Maybe it won't be DRM, maybe the music will actually be streamed to us "On Demand." Piracy will still be a huge problem, but the labels won't carry the weight they do now (RIAA) to even attempt to do something about it.
Overall, recording studios will become rarer and rarer with only a few commercial studios in operation. Most work for advertising or corporations will either be licensed dirt cheap from "indie" artists, or done in house. In fact, I almost envision a Mad Max type of scenario where the vast majority of music will be made by nobodies who'll do almost all the work at home.
When it comes to production, software will have advanced that performances will be entirely corrected in the computer (pitch, tuning, etc.), and we'll be able to simulate environments (i.e. good rooms, better gear, better instruments) to a level that convolution only hints at now. Virtual Instruments will become much better at physical models, and we may eventually forgoe the need to have humans provide anything other than a voice for our recordings.
As a reaction to all of this, there will be a very small groups of live musicians/bands who play in cities and keep the boutique studios open. The studios could even be run by the members of these communities and they'll probably record and play on each others releases similar to The Ship, or the Elephant 6 collective. They'll never make any money of course, though neither will anyone else in this distopian model of mine.
posted May 8, 2008 by Funkybot
posted May 8, 2008 by meeglosh
IDM/electronica etc will become utterly unsalable (and often unlistenable) as the ratio of listeners to producers approaches 1:1. Great releases in these genres and their descendants will be rare but impressive when they do appear. Elaborate or silly midi controllers will continue to be created, blogged about, and sold in small quantities at a faster rate than ever.
In general, a strange hole will open up in the spectrum of new music available to us... with only giant pop/r&b acts and bedroom hobbyists selling records, two thirds of independent artists drop out of the game completely and just get day jobs. With the end of the album in 2012 (most remaining music sales are novelty tunes and hi-def hip-hop videos on iTunes) recorded music as it has been known for the last 30 years crumbles completely by 2018....
posted May 8, 2008 by emulsion
I think every town worth its weight will have a used CD store, but I think the real strength of that will be places like Ebay.
posted May 8, 2008 by Heretic_D™
instead of "liner notes" or artwork/sleeves, releases will have related site(s) full of webjunk/content//advertising/blog/remix stems, etc. pretty much every release will have some sort of promotional tie-in.
you may be able to pick up the latest: NOW #123556! compilation on a jump drive when you plug your car in at the electric/fried vegetable oil pump. otherwise, no other premade sets of songs really is made, except maybe starbucks "mom's love fuzakjazzphunk" comps.
record stores will obviously not exist, but maybe some sort of kiosk for downloadable swag will exist in malls where you can dload whatever song you just saw advertised minority report style while buying a slushie 30 seconds earlier.
ultimately, songs themselves will come back in some way - at least songs that can hook you in a microsecond. no more of this 80000 word r&b/hiphop rambling nonsense. back to pithy little ditties with one or two hooks.
sustainable musical artists? the 1000 fanbase rule will be there, but getting the songs placed in different promotional activities will be key.
and i'm hoping shitcock.com will have replaced itunes by then.
posted May 8, 2008 by dumafuji
The primary problem that most large labels are currently buckling under is the gigantic overhead associated with operating a production / distribution / advertising business with hundreds to thousands of employees. This business model is doomed to fail unless people keep buying the music - in VAST QUANTITIES.
Just as we have seen production move to the bedroom studio in the last 10 years, I believe we will see indie labels in the future take advantage of affordable software and online services to make a more streamlined business, less encumbered by overhead costs. Online distribution has already allowed independents to bypass the hurdle of actually packaging, shipping, and selling 100,000 tangible CD's, and this has opened up new opportunities. Next, what's needed is an effective means of social networking for scheduling tours for small bands. Something where you sign up, punch in a schedule, and venue owners see your tentative dates IM you and schedules shows. This would kill the band's tour-manager sycophant. Last, but not least, bands need pre-fab legal agreements and counsel - something like legalzoom for rock-stars. Once these things are in place, indies will rule, while the Record-Giants crumble like states in the former soviet union, encumbered by massive amounts of expensive, ineffective bureaucracy.
posted May 8, 2008 by oldmanfury
Music creation will advance similarly in direct-neural virtual space to the point where whatever you imagine, you hear--even in the same instant. No instrument, performer, acoustic space, or piece of recording equipment will be beyond perfect simulation. No traditional musical training or skill will be required.
These new forms of consumption and creation will not be separate. Even before the technologies are fully realized, the acts of consumption and creation will have merged so thoroughly that intellectual property is often indefinable. Imagine Jim Croce singing "Nowhere Man," in Russian, with the Shaggs and Michael Angelo backing him up--and you're hearing it. Add the sax solo from "Maneater," replace the Shaggs drummer with half of Kodo, and add a string arrangement of your own devising. You're hearing it all the moment you imagine it. You send the completed "recording" to friends. One of them likes it, and posts it on his MySpace page (haha, just kidding). Another friend puts the whole thing on a Hungarian Minor scale and re-writes the melody, and several hundred people "download" it from him.
Who gets the BMI check? Who are the writers and performers of spontaneously manifested semi-imagination?
c.
posted May 8, 2008 by blinkman
The big labels and music publishing companies will still be around, though not as we know them today. They'll probably be folded into divisions of larger entertainment companies. Instead of selling music to consumers, their primary sales activity will be placing songs in movies and other licensing deals, promotional tie-ins with all sorts of other companies, setting up live music events, etc.
The small independent labels - the 1 dude at home putting out cool records - won't be affected much. He/she will just go with the flow, make their music free online, whatever it takes.
Predictably, those with the biggest problem will be the medium-sized independents - your Matadors, Warps, Antis, Touch and Goes, etc. The smart ones will morph into more general entertainment companies and somehow use technology and video/film to create "experiences" for people. (I wrote that, and I don't know exactly what the fuck that means). Most will fall by the wayside and be overtaken by a new generation of independents.
posted May 8, 2008 by oscillations
As for what said music/music industry will look like... I have to be honest. I have no fucking clue. The industry has changed so much just from 1998 (me = 17 with a Columbia House subscription and not so much as an e-mail address) to 2008 (me = 27 and living through the internet, buying music primarily online) that I couldn't even begin to guess. Brave New World and all that.
posted May 8, 2008 by adamkjohnson
Alot of bad music with a cool genre name to compensate.
Pop music will ditch the verses as was done with the Guitar solo and keep only the Hook, what I wanna call a Love Jingle.
Rap will keep getting dumbed down...Puttin' blurbs and slurs and words that don't fit In a rhyme. Why waste time on the microphone?
posted May 8, 2008 by inteliko